The Metaphors of the
Net
by: Sam Vaknin
Four metaphors come to mind when
we consider the Internet "philosophically":
A Genetic Blueprint
A Chaotic Library
A Collective Nervous System
An Unknown Continent (Terra Internetica)
I. The Genetic Blueprint
A decade after the invention of the
World Wide Web, Tim Berners-Lee is promoting the "Semantic Web". The Internet
hitherto is a repository of digital content. It has a rudimentary inventory
system and very crude data location services. As a sad result, most of
the content is invisible and inaccessible. Moreover, the. In other words,
the Net compares values but does not know the meaning of the values it
thus manipulates. It is unable to interpret strings, to infer new facts,
to deduce, induce, derive, or otherwise comprehend what it is doing. In
short, it does not understand language. Run an ambiguous term by any search
engine and these shortcomings become painfully evident. This lack of understanding
of the semantic foundations of its raw material (data, information) prevent
applications and databases from sharing resources and feeding each other.
The Internet is discrete, not continuous. It resembles an archipelago,
with users hopping from island to island in a frantic search for relevancy.
Even visionaries like Berners-Lee
do not contemplate an "intelligent Web". They are simply proposing to let
users, content creators, and web developers assign descriptive meta-tags
("name of hotel") to fields, or to strings of symbols ("Hilton"). These
meta-tags (arranged in semantic and relational "ontologies" - lists of
metatags, their meanings and how they relate to each other) will be read
by various applications and allow them to process the associated strings
of symbols correctly (place the word "Hilton" in your address book under
"hotels"). This will make information retrieval more efficient and reliable
and the information retrieved is bound to be more relevant and amenable
to higher level processing (statistics, the development of heuristic rules,
etc.). The shift is from HTML (whose tags are concerned with visual appearances
and content indexing) to languages such as the DARPA Agent Markup Language,
OIL (Ontology Inference Layer or Ontology Interchange Language), or even
XML (whose tags are concerned with content taxonomy, document structure,
and semantics). This would bring the Internet closer to the classic library
card catalogue.
Even in its current, pre-semantic,
hyperlink-dependent, phase, the Internet brings to mind Richard Dawkins'
seminal work "The Selfish Gene" (OUP, 1976). This would be doubly true
for the Semantic Web.
Dawkins suggested to generalize the
principle of natural selection to a law of the survival of the stable.
"A stable thing is a collection of atoms which is permanent enough or common
enough to deserve a name". He then proceeded to describe the emergence
of "Replicators" - molecules which created copies of themselves. The Replicators
that survived in the competition for scarce raw materials were characterized
by high longevity, fecundity, and copying-fidelity. Replicators (now known
as "genes") constructed "survival machines" (organisms) to shield them
from the vagaries of an ever-harsher environment.
This is very reminiscent of the Internet.
The "stable things" are HTML coded web pages. They are replicators - they
create copies of themselves every time their "web address" (URL) is clicked.
The HTML coding of a web page can be thought of as "genetic material".
It contains all the information needed to reproduce the page. And, exactly
as in nature, the higher the longevity, fecundity (measured in links to
the web page from other web sites), and copying-fidelity of the HTML code
- the higher its chances to survive (as a web page).
Replicator molecules (DNA) and replicator
HTML have one thing in common - they are both packaged information. In
the appropriate context (the right biochemical "soup" in the case of DNA,
the right software application in the case of HTML code) - this information
generates a "survival machine" (organism, or a web page).
The Semantic Web will only increase
the longevity, fecundity, and copying-fidelity or the underlying code (in
this case, OIL or XML instead of HTML). By facilitating many more interactions
with many other web pages and databases - the underlying "replicator" code
will ensure the "survival" of "its" web page (=its survival machine). In
this analogy, the web page's "DNA" (its OIL or XML code) contains "single
genes" (semantic meta-tags). The whole process of life is the unfolding
of a kind of Semantic Web.
In a prophetic paragraph, Dawkins
described the Internet:
"The first thing to grasp about a
modern replicator is that it is highly gregarious. A survival machine is
a vehicle containing not just one gene but many thousands. The manufacture
of a body is a cooperative venture of such intricacy that it is almost
impossible to disentangle the contribution of one gene from that of another.
A given gene will have many different effects on quite different parts
of the body. A given part of the body will be influenced by many genes
and the effect of any one gene depends on interaction with many others...In
terms of the analogy, any given page of the plans makes reference to many
different parts of the building; and each page makes sense only in terms
of cross-reference to numerous other pages."
What Dawkins neglected in his important
work is the concept of the Network. People congregate in cities, mate,
and reproduce, thus providing genes with new "survival machines". But Dawkins
himself suggested that the new Replicator is the "meme" - an idea, belief,
technique, technology, work of art, or bit of information. Memes use human
brains as "survival machines" and they hop from brain to brain and across
time and space ("communications") in the process of cultural (as distinct
from biological) evolution. The Internet is a latter day meme-hopping playground.
But, more importantly, it is a Network. Genes move from one container to
another through a linear, serial, tedious process which involves prolonged
periods of one on one gene shuffling ("sex") and gestation. Memes use networks.
Their propagation is, therefore, parallel, fast, and all-pervasive. The
Internet is a manifestation of the growing predominance of memes over genes.
And the Semantic Web may be to the Internet what Artificial Intelligence
is to classic computing. We may be on the threshold of a self-aware Web.
2. The Internet as a Chaotic Library
A. The Problem of Cataloguing
The Internet is an assortment of
billions of pages which contain information. Some of them are visible and
others are generated from hidden databases by users' requests ("Invisible
Internet").
The Internet exhibits no discernible
order, classification, or categorization. Amazingly, as opposed to "classical"
libraries, no one has yet invented a (sorely needed) Internet cataloguing
standard (remember Dewey?). Some sites indeed apply the Dewey Decimal System
to their contents (Suite101). Others default to a directory structure (Open
Directory, Yahoo!, Look Smart and others).
Had such a standard existed (an agreed
upon numerical cataloguing method) - each site could have self-classified.
Sites would have an interest to do so to increase their visibility. This,
naturally, would have eliminated the need for today's clunky, incomplete
and (highly) inefficient search engines.
Thus, a site whose number starts
with 900 will be immediately identified as dealing with history and multiple
classification will be encouraged to allow finer cross-sections to emerge.
An example of such an emerging technology of "self classification" and
"self-publication" (though limited to scholarly resources) is the "Academic
Resource Channel" by Scindex.
Moreover, users will not be required
to remember reams of numbers. Future browsers will be akin to catalogues,
very much like the applications used in modern day libraries. Compare this
utopia to the current dystopy. Users struggle with mounds of irrelevant
material to finally reach a partial and disappointing destination. At the
same time, there likely are web sites which exactly match the poor user's
needs. Yet, what currently determines the chances of a happy encounter
between user and content - are the whims of the specific search engine
used and things like meta-tags, headlines, a fee paid, or the right opening
sentences.
B. Screen vs. Page
The computer screen, because of physical
limitations (size, the fact that it has to be scrolled) fails to effectively
compete with the printed page. The latter is still the most ingenious medium
yet invented for the storage and release of textual information. Granted:
a computer screen is better at highlighting discrete units of information.
So, these differing capacities draw the battle lines: structures (printed
pages) versus units (screen), the continuous and easily reversible (print)
versus the discrete (screen).
The solution lies in finding an efficient
way to translate computer screens to printed matter. It is hard to believe,
but no such thing exists. Computer screens are still hostile to off-line
printing. In other words: if a user copies information from the Internet
to his word processor (or vice versa, for that matter) - he ends up with
a fragmented, garbage-filled and non-aesthetic document.
Very few site developers try to do
something about it - even fewer succeed.
C. Dynamic vs. Static Interactions
One of the biggest mistakes of content
suppliers is that they do not provide a "static-dynamic interaction".
Internet-based content can now easily
interact with other media (e.g., CD-ROMs) and with non-PC platforms (PDA's,
mobile phones).
Examples abound:
A CD-ROM shopping catalogue interacts
with a Web site to allow the user to order a product. The catalogue could
also be updated through the site (as is the practice with CD-ROM encyclopedias).
The advantages of the CD-ROM are clear: very fast access time (dozens of
times faster than the access to a Web site using a dial up connection)
and a data storage capacity hundreds of times bigger than the average Web
page.
Another example:
A PDA plug-in disposable chip containing
hundreds of advertisements or a "yellow pages". The consumer selects the
ad or entry that she wants to see and connects to the Internet to view
a relevant video. She could then also have an interactive chat (or a conference)
with a salesperson, receive information about the company, about the ad,
about the advertising agency which created the ad - and so on.
CD-ROM based encyclopedias (such
as the Britannica, or the Encarta) already contain hyperlinks which carry
the user to sites selected by an Editorial Board.
Note
CD-ROMs are probably a doomed medium.
Storage capacity continually increases exponentially and, within a year,
desktops with 80 Gb hard disks will be a common sight. Moreover, the much
heralded Network Computer - the stripped down version of the personal computer
- will put at the disposal of the average user terabytes in storage capacity
and the processing power of a supercomputer. What separates computer users
from this utopia is the communication bandwidth. With the introduction
of radio and satellite broadband services, DSL and ADSL, cable modems coupled
with advanced compression standards - video (on demand), audio and data
will be available speedily and plentifully.
The CD-ROM, on the other hand, is
not mobile. It requires installation and the utilization of sophisticated
hardware and software. This is no user friendly push technology. It is
nerd-oriented. As a result, CD-ROMs are not an immediate medium. There
is a long time lapse between the moment of purchase and the moment the
user accesses the data. Compare this to a book or a magazine. Data in these
oldest of media is instantly available to the user and they allow for easy
and accurate "back" and "forward" functions.
Perhaps the biggest mistake of CD-ROM
manufacturers has been their inability to offer an integrated hardware
and software package. CD-ROMs are not compact. A Walkman is a compact hardware-cum-software
package. It is easily transportable, it is thin, it contains numerous,
user-friendly, sophisticated functions, it provides immediate access to
data. So does the discman, or the MP3-man, or the new generation of e-books
(e.g., E-Ink's). This cannot be said about the CD-ROM. By tying its future
to the obsolete concept of stand-alone, expensive, inefficient and technologically
unreliable personal computers - CD-ROMs have sentenced themselves to oblivion
(with the possible exception of reference material).
D. Online Reference
A visit to the on-line Encyclopaedia
Britannica demonstrates some of the tremendous, mind boggling possibilities
of online reference - as well as some of the obstacles.
Each entry in this mammoth work of
reference is hyperlinked to relevant Web sites. The sites are carefully
screened. Links are available to data in various forms, including audio
and video. Everything can be copied to the hard disk or to a R/W CD.
This is a new conception of a knowledge
centre - not just a heap of material. The content is modular and continuously
enriched. It can be linked to a voice Q&A centre. Queries by subscribers
can be answered by e-mail, by fax, posted on the site, hard copies can
be sent by post. This "Trivial Pursuit" or "homework" service could be
very popular - there is considerable appetite for "Just in Time Information".
The Library of Congress - together with a few other libraries - is in the
process of making just such a service available to the public (CDRS - Collaborative
Digital Reference Service).
E. Derivative Content
The Internet is an enormous reservoir
of archives of freely accessible, or even public domain, information.
With a minimal investment, this information
can be gathered into coherent, theme oriented, cheap compilations (on CD-ROMs,
print, e-books or other media).
F. E-Publishing
The Internet is by far the world's
largest publishing platform. It incorporates FAQs (Q&A's regarding
almost every technical matter in the world), e-zines (electronic magazines),
the electronic versions of print dailies and periodicals (in conjunction
with on-line news and information services), reference material, e-books,
monographs, articles, minutes of discussions ("threads"), conference proceedings,
and much more besides.
The Internet represents major advantages
to publishers. Consider the electronic version of a p-zine.
Publishing an e-zine promotes the
sales of the printed edition, it helps sign on subscribers and it leads
to the sale of advertising space. The electronic archive function (see
next section) saves the need to file back issues, the physical space required
to do so and the irritating search for data items.
The future trend is a combined subscription
to both the electronic edition (mainly for the archival value and the ability
to hyperlink to additional information) and to the print one (easier to
browse the current issue). The Economist is already offering free access
to its electronic archives as an inducement to its print subscribers.
The electronic daily presents other
advantages:
It allows for immediate feedback
and for flowing, almost real-time, communication between writers and readers.
The electronic version, therefore, acquires a gyroscopic function: a navigation
instrument, always indicating deviations from the "right" course. The content
can be instantly updated and breaking news incorporated in older content.
Specialty hand held devices already
allow for downloading and storage of vast quantities of data (up to 4000
print pages). The user gains access to libraries containing hundreds of
texts, adapted to be downloaded, stored and read by the specific device.
Again, a convergence of standards is to be expected in this field as well
(the final contenders will probably be Adobe's PDF against Microsoft's
MS-Reader).
Currently, e-books are dichotomously
treated either as:
Continuation of print books (p-books)
by other means, or as a whole new publishing universe.
Since p-books are a more convenient
medium then e-books - they will prevail in any straightforward "medium
replacement" or "medium displacement" battle.
In other words, if publishers will
persist in the simple and straightforward conversion of p-books to e-books
- then e-books are doomed. They are simply inferior and cannot offer the
comfort, tactile delights, browseability and scanability of p-books.
But e-books - being digital - open
up a vista of hitherto neglected possibilities. These will only be enhanced
and enriched by the introduction of e-paper and e-ink. Among them:
-
Hyperlinks within the e-book and without
it - to web content, reference works, etc.;
-
Embedded instant shopping and ordering
links;
-
Divergent, user-interactive, decision
driven plotlines;
-
Interaction with other e-books (using
a wireless standard) - collaborative authoring or reading groups;
-
Interaction with other e-books - gaming
and community activities;
-
Automatically or periodically updated
content;
-
Multimedia;
-
Database, Favourites, Annotations, and
History Maintenance (archival records of reading habits, shopping habits,
interaction with other readers, plot related decisions and much more);
-
Automatic and embedded audio conversion
and translation capabilities;
-
Full wireless piconetworking and scatternetworking
capabilities.
-
The technology is still not fully there.
Wars rage in both the wireless and the e-book realms. Platforms compete.
Standards clash. Gurus debate. But convergence is inevitable and with it
the e-book of the future.
G. The Archive Function
The Internet is also the world's
biggest cemetery: tens of thousands of deadbeat sites, still accessible
- the "Ghost Sites" of this electronic frontier.
This, in a way, is collective memory.
One of the Internet's main functions will be to preserve and transfer knowledge
through time. It is called "memory" in biology - and "archive" in library
science. The history of the Internet is being documented by search engines
(Google) and specialized services (Alexa) alike.
3. The Internet as a Collective Nervous
System
Drawing a comparison from the development
of a human infant - the human race has just commenced to develop its neural
system.
The Internet fulfils all the functions
of the Nervous System in the body and is, both functionally and structurally,
pretty similar. It is decentralized, redundant (each part can serve as
functional backup in case of malfunction). It hosts information which is
accessible through various paths, it contains a memory function, it is
multimodal (multimedia - textual, visual, audio and animation).
I believe that the comparison is
not superficial and that studying the functions of the brain (from infancy
to adulthood) is likely to shed light on the future of the Net itself.
The Net - exactly like the nervous system - provides pathways for the transport
of goods and services - but also of memes and information, their processing,
modeling, and integration.
A. The Collective Computer
Carrying the metaphor of "a collective
brain" further, we would expect the processing of information to take place
on the Internet, rather than inside the end-user’s hardware (the same way
that information is processed in the brain, not in the eyes). Desktops
will receive results and communicate with the Net to receive additional
clarifications and instructions and to convey information gathered from
their environment (mostly, from the user).
Put differently:
In future, servers will contain not
only information (as they do today) - but also software applications. The
user of an application will not be forced to buy it. He will not be driven
into hardware-related expenditures to accommodate the ever growing size
of applications. He will not find himself wasting his scarce memory and
computing resources on passive storage. Instead, he will use a browser
to call a central computer. This computer will contain the needed software,
broken to its elements (=applets, small applications). Anytime the user
wishes to use one of the functions of the application, he will siphon it
off the central computer. When finished - he will "return" it. Processing
speeds and response times will be such that the user will not feel at all
that he is not interacting with his own software (the question of ownership
will be very blurred). This technology is available and it provoked a heated
debated about the future shape of the computing industry as a whole (desktops
- really power packs - or network computers, a little more than dumb terminals).
Access to online applications are already offered to corporate users by
ASPs (Application Service Providers).
In the last few years, scientists
have harnessed the combined power of online PC's to perform astounding
feats of distributed parallel processing. Millions of PCs connected to
the net co-process signals from outer space, meteorological data, and solve
complex equations. This is a prime example of a collective brain in action.
B. The Intranet - a Logical Extension
of the Collective Computer
LANs (Local Area Networks) are no
longer a rarity in corporate offices. WANs (wide Area Networks) are used
to connect geographically dispersed organs of the same legal entity (branches
of a bank, daughter companies of a conglomerate, a sales force). Many LANs
and WANs are going wireless.
The wireless intranet/extranet and
LANs are the wave of the future. They will gradually eliminate their fixed
line counterparts. The Internet offers equal, platform-independent, location-independent
and time of day - independent access to corporate memory and nervous system.
Sophisticated firewall security applications protect the privacy and confidentiality
of the intranet from all but the most determined and savvy crackers.
The Intranet is an inter-organizational
communication network, constructed on the platform of the Internet and
it, therefore, enjoys all its advantages. The extranet is open to clients
and suppliers as well.
The company's server can be accessed
by anyone authorized, from anywhere, at any time (with local - rather than
international - communication costs). The user can leave messages (internal
e-mail or v-mail), access information - proprietary or public - from it,
and participate in "virtual teamwork" (see next chapter).
The development of measures to safeguard
server routed inter-organizational communication (firewalls) is the solution
to one of two obstacles to the institutionalization of Intranets. The second
problem is the limited bandwidth which does not permit the efficient transfer
of audio (not to mention video).
It is difficult to conduct video
conferencing through the Internet. Even the voices of discussants who use
internet phones (IP telephony) come out (though very slightly) distorted.
All this did not prevent 95% of the
Fortune 1000 from installing intranet. 82% of the rest intend to install
one by the end of this year. Medium to big size American firms have 50-100
intranet terminals per every internet one.
One of the greatest advantages of
the intranet is the ability to transfer documents between the various parts
of an organization. Consider Visa: it pushed 2 million documents per day
internally in 1996.
An organization equipped with an
intranet can (while protected by firewalls) give its clients or suppliers
access to non-classified correspondence, or inventory systems. Many B2B
exchanges and industry-specific purchasing management systems are based
on extranets.
C. The Transport of Information -
Mail and Chat
The Internet (its e-mail function)
is eroding traditional mail. 90% of customers with on-line access use e-mail
from time to time and 60% work with it regularly. More than 2 billion messages
traverse the internet daily.
E-mail applications are available
as freeware and are included in all browsers. Thus, the Internet has completely
assimilated what used to be a separate service, to the extent that many
people make the mistake of thinking that e-mail is a feature of the Internet.
The internet will do to phone calls
what it has done to mail. Already there are applications (Intel's, Vocaltec's,
Net2Phone) which enable the user to conduct a phone conversation through
his computer. The voice quality has improved. The discussants can cut into
each others words, argue and listen to tonal nuances. Today, the parties
(two or more) engaging in the conversation must possess the same software
and the same (computer) hardware. In the very near future, computer-to-regular
phone applications will eliminate this requirement. And, again, simultaneous
multi-modality: the user can talk over the phone, see his party, send e-mail,
receive messages and transfer documents - without obstructing the flow
of the conversation.
The cost of transferring voice will
become so negligible that free voice traffic is conceivable in 3-5 years.
Data traffic will overtake voice traffic by a wide margin.
The next phase will probably involve
virtual reality. Each of the parties will be represented by an "avatar",
a 3-D figurine generated by the application (or the user's likeness mapped
and superimposed on the the avatar). These figurines will be multi-dimensional:
they will possess their own communication patterns, special habits, history,
preferences - in short: their own "personality".
Thus, they will be able to maintain
an "identity" and a consistent pattern of communication which they will
develop over time.
Such a figure could host a site,
accept, welcome and guide visitors, all the time bearing their preferences
in its electronic "mind". It could narrate the news, like the digital anchor
"Ananova" does. Visiting sites in the future is bound to be a much more
pleasant affair.
D. The Transport of Value - E-cash
In 1996, four corporate giants (Visa,
MasterCard, Netscape and Microsoft) agreed on a standard for effecting
secure payments through the Internet: SET. Internet commerce is supposed
to mushroom to $25 billion by 2003. Site owners will be able to collect
rent from passing visitors - or fees for services provided within the site.
Amazon instituted an honour system to collect donations from visitors.
PayPal provides millions of users with cash substitutes. Gradually, the
Internet will compete with central banks and banking systems in money creation
and transfer.
E. The Transport of Interactions
- The Virtual Organization
The Internet allows for simultaneous
communication and the efficient transfer of multimedia (video included)
files between an unlimited number of users. This opens up a vista of mind
boggling opportunities which are the real core of the Internet revolution:
the virtual collaborative ("Follow the Sun") modes.
Examples:
A group of musicians is able to compose
music or play it - while spatially and temporally separated;
Advertising agencies are able to
co-produce ad campaigns in a real time interaction;
Cinema and TV films are produced
from disparate geographical spots through the teamwork of people who never
meet, except through the Net.
These examples illustrate the concept
of the "virtual community". Space and time will no longer hinder team collaboration,
be it scientific, artistic, cultural, or an ad hoc arrangement for the
provision of a service (a virtual law firm, or accounting office, or a
virtual consultancy network). The intranet can also be thought of as a
"virtual organization", or a "virtual business".
The virtual mall and the virtual
catalogue are prime examples of spatial and temporal liberation.
In 1998, there were well over 300
active virtual malls on the Internet. In 2000, they were frequented by
46 million shoppers, who shopped in them for goods and services.
The virtual mall is an Internet "space"
(pages) wherein "shops" are located. These shops offer their wares using
visual, audio and textual means. The visitor passes through a virtual "gate"
or storefront and examines the merchandise on offer, until he reaches a
buying decision. Then he engages in a feedback process: he pays (with a
credit card), buys the product, and waits for it to arrive by mail (or
downloads it).
The manufacturers of digital products
(intellectual property such as e-books or software) have begun selling
their merchandise on-line, as file downloads. Yet, slow communications
speeds, competing file formats and reader standards, and limited bandwidth
- constrain the growth potential of this mode of sale. Once resolved -
intellectual property will be sold directly from the Net, on-line. Until
such time, the mediation of the Post Office is still required. As long
as this is the state of the art, the virtual mall is nothing but a glorified
computerized mail catalogue or Buying Channel, the only difference being
the exceptionally varied inventory.
Websites which started as "specialty
stores" are fast transforming themselves into multi-purpose virtual malls.
Amazon.com, for instance, has bought into a virtual pharmacy and into other
virtual businesses. It is now selling music, video, electronics and many
other products. It started as a bookstore.
This contrasts with a much more creative
idea: the virtual catalogue. It is a form of narrowcasting (as opposed
to broadcasting): a surgically accurate targeting of potential consumer
audiences. Each group of profiled consumers (no matter how small) is fitted
with their own - digitally generated - catalogue. This is updated daily:
the variety of wares on offer (adjusted to reflect inventory levels, consumer
preferences, and goods in transit) - and prices (sales, discounts, package
deals) change in real time. Amazon has incorporated many of these features
on its web site. The user enters its web site and there delineates his
consumption profile and his preferences. A customized catalogue is immediately
generated for him including specific recommendations. The history of his
purchases, preferences and responses to feedback questionnaires is accumulated
in a database. This intellectual property may well be Amazon's main asset.
There is no technological obstacles
to implementing this vision today - only administrative and legal (patent)
ones. Big brick and mortar retail stores are not up to processing the flood
of data expected to result. They also remain highly sceptical regarding
the feasibility of the new medium. And privacy issues prevent data mining
or the effective collection and usage of personal data (remember the case
of Amazon's "Readers' Circles").
The virtual catalogue is a private
case of a new internet off-shoot: the "smart (shopping) agents". These
are AI applications with "long memories".
They draw detailed profiles of consumers
and users and then suggest purchases and refer to the appropriate sites,
catalogues, or virtual malls.
They also provide price comparisons
and the new generation cannot be blocked or fooled by using differing product
categories.
In the future, these agents will
cover also brick and mortar retail chains and, in conjunction with wireless,
location-specific services, issue a map of the branch or store closest
to an address specified by the user (the default being his residence),
or yielded by his GPS enabled wireless mobile or PDA. This technology can
be seen in action in a few music sites on the web and is likely to be dominant
with wireless internet appliances. The owner of an internet enabled (third
generation) mobile phone is likely to be the target of geographically-specific
marketing campaigns, ads and special offers pertaining to his current location
(as reported by his GPS - satellite Geographic Positioning System).
F. The Transport of Information -
Internet News
Internet news are advantaged. They
are frequently and dynamically updated (unlike static print news) and are
always accessible (similar to print news), immediate and fresh.
The future will witness a form of
interactive news. A special "corner" in the news Web site will accommodate
"breaking news" posted by members of the the public (or corporate press
releases). This will provide readers with a glimpse into the making of
the news, the raw material news are made of. The same technology will be
applied to interactive TVs. Content will be downloaded from the internet
and displayed as an overlay on the TV screen or in a box in it. The contents
downloaded will be directly connected to the TV programming. Thus, the
biography and track record of a football player will be displayed during
a football match and the history of a country when it gets news coverage.
4. Terra Internetica - Internet,
an Unknown Continent
Laymen and experts alike talk about
"sites" and "advertising space". Yet, the Internet was never compared to
a new continent whose surface is infinite.
The Internet has its own real estate
developers and construction companies. The real life equivalents derive
their profits from the scarcity of the resource that they exploit - the
Internet counterparts derive their profits from the tenants (content producers
and distributors, e-tailers, and others).
Entrepreneurs bought "Internet Space"
(pages, domain names, portals) and leveraged their acquisition commercially
by:
-
Renting space out;
-
Constructing infrastructure on their
property and selling it;
-
Providing an intelligent gateway, entry
point (portal) to the rest of the internet;
-
Selling advertising space which subsidizes
the tenants (Yahoo!-Geocities, Tripod and others);
-
Cybersquatting (purchasing specific
domain names identical to brand names in the "real" world) and then selling
the domain name to an interested party.
-
Internet Space can be easily purchased
or created. The investment is low and getting lower with the introduction
of competition in the field of domain registration services and the increase
in the number of top domains.
Then, infrastructure can be erected
- for a shopping mall, for free home pages, for a portal, or for another
purpose. It is precisely this infrastructure that the developer can later
sell, lease, franchise, or rent out.
But this real estate bubble was the
culmination of a long and tortuous process.
At the beginning, only members of
the fringes and the avant-garde (inventors, risk assuming entrepreneurs,
gamblers) invest in a new invention. No one knows to say what are the optimal
uses of the invention (in other words, what is its future). Many - mostly
members of the scientific and business elites - argue that there is no
real need for the invention and that it substitutes a new and untried way
for old and tried modes of doing the same things (so why assume the risk
of investing in the unknown and the untried?).
Moreover, these criticisms are usually
well-founded.
To start with, there is, indeed,
no need for the new medium. A new medium invents itself - and the need
for it. It also generates its own market to satisfy this newly found need.
Two prime examples of this self-recursive
process are the personal computer and the compact disc.
When the PC was invented, its uses
were completely unclear. Its performance was lacking, its abilities limited,
it was unbearably user unfriendly. It suffered from faulty design, was
absent any user comfort and ease of use and required considerable professional
knowledge to operate. The worst part was that this knowledge was exclusive
to the new invention (not portable). It reduced labour mobility and limited
one's professional horizons. There were many gripes among workers assigned
to tame the new beast. Managers regarded it at best as a nuisance.
The PC was thought of, at the beginning,
as a sophisticated gaming machine, an electronic baby-sitter. It included
a keyboard, so it was thought of in terms of a glorified typewriter or
spreadsheet. It was used mainly as a word processor (and the outlay justified
solely on these grounds). The spreadsheet was the first real PC application
and it demonstrated the advantages inherent to this new machine (mainly
flexibility and speed). Still, it was more of the same. A speedier sliding
ruler. After all, said the unconvinced, what was the difference between
this and a hand held calculator (some of them already had computing, memory
and programming features)?
The PC was recognized as a medium
only 30 years after it was invented with the introduction of multimedia
software. All this time, the computer continued to spin off markets and
secondary markets, needs and professional specialties. The talk as always
was centred on how to improve on existing markets and solutions.
The Internet is the computer's first
important application. Hitherto the computer was only quantitatively different
to other computing or gaming devices. Multimedia and the Internet have
made it qualitatively superior, sui generis, unique.
Part of the problem was that the
Internet was invented, is maintained and is operated by computer professionals.
For decades these people have been conditioned to think in Olympic terms:
faster, stronger, higher - not in terms of the new, the unprecedented,
or the non-existent. Engineers are trained to improve - seldom to invent.
With few exceptions, its creators stumbled across the Internet - it invented
itself despite them.
Computer professionals (hardware
and software experts alike) - are linear thinkers. The Internet is non
linear and modular.
It is still the age of hackers. There
is still a lot to be done in improving technological prowess and powers.
But their control of the contents is waning and they are being gradually
replaced by communicators, creative people, advertising executives, psychologists,
venture capitalists, and the totally unpredictable masses who flock to
flaunt their home pages and graphomania.
These all are attuned to the user,
his mental needs and his information and entertainment preferences.
The compact disc is a different tale.
It was intentionally invented to improve upon an existing technology (basically,
Edison’s Gramophone). Market-wise, this was a major gamble. The improvement
was, at first, debatable (many said that the sound quality of the first
generation of compact discs was inferior to that of its contemporaneous
record players). Consumers had to be convinced to change both software
and hardware and to dish out thousands of dollars just to listen to what
the manufacturers claimed was more a authentically reproduced sound. A
better argument was the longer life of the software (though when contrasted
with the limited life expectancy of the consumer, some of the first sales
pitches sounded absolutely morbid).
The computer suffered from unclear
positioning. The compact disc was very clear as to its main functions -
but had a rough time convincing the consumers that it was needed.
Every medium is first controlled
by the technical people. Gutenberg was a printer - not a publisher. Yet,
he is the world's most famous publisher. The technical cadre is joined
by dubious or small-scale entrepreneurs and, together, they establish ventures
with no clear vision, market-oriented thinking, or orderly plan of action.
The legislator is also dumbfounded and does not grasp what is happening
- thus, there is no legislation to regulate the use of the medium. Witness
the initial confusion concerning copyrighted vs. licenced software, e-books,
and the copyrights of ROM embedded software. Abuse or under-utilization
of resources grow. The sale of radio frequencies to the first cellular
phone operators in the West - a situation which repeats itself in Eastern
and Central Europe nowadays - is an example.
But then more complex transactions
- exactly as in real estate in "real life" - begin to emerge. The Internet
is likely to converge with "real life". It is likely to be dominated by
brick and mortar entities which are likely to import their business methods
and management. As its eccentric past (the dot.com boom and the dot.bomb
bust) recedes - a sustainable and profitable future awaits it.
About The Author
Sam Vaknin is the author of Malignant
Self Love - Narcissism Revisited and After the Rain - How the West Lost
the East. He is a columnist for Central Europe Review, PopMatters, and
eBookWeb , a United Press International (UPI) Senior Business Correspondent,
and the editor of mental health and Central East Europe categories in The
Open Directory Bellaonline, and Suite101 .
Until recently, he served as the
Economic Advisor to the Government of Macedonia.
Visit Sam's Web site at http://samvak.tripod.com
palma@unet.com.mk
Courtesy of http://www.ArticleCity.com/
